The Two Factors That Cheated Trump Out Of Even More Electoral Votes

There is no doubt that President-elect Donald Trump has won a sweeping victory, becoming only the second U.S. president to be elected to a second, non-consecutive term in one of the most remarkable political comeback stories in American history. But his victory in the Electoral College would’ve been even bigger if two factors hadn’t cheated him out of the additional votes he should have received. 

Why do I say this? Because of the jarring errors the Census Bureau admitted it made in its population numbers for multiple states, and its unfair inclusion of aliens in the population used for congressional apportionment. That inclusion dilutes the votes of U.S. citizens, distorting representation in the U.S. House of Representatives and in the Electoral College. 

Let me explain. 

First, the costly errors. In 2022, the Census Bureau issued a report in which it announced that a post-census survey revealed that its count was wrong in 14 states. It undercounted the populations of Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas, while overcounting the populations of Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Utah. The errors ranged from a low of 1.49% to a high of 6.79%. 

Due to these errors, Florida did not receive two additional congressional seats it should have gotten, Texas lost out on one additional seat, and Minnesota and Rhode Island each retained a seat they should have lost. Colorado received an additional seat it didn’t deserve. 

Since Trump won Florida and Texas, he should have gotten an additional three Electoral College votes from those states. Kamala Harris should have had three Electoral College votes deducted from her total with her wins in Colorado, Minnesota, and Rhode Island. 

Second, the inclusion of aliens, both legal and illegal, in the population used for apportionment also had a significant effect on the election since they are included in the population used to determine how many votes each state is entitled to in the Electoral College. That’s a major reason why liberals fought so hard to prevent a citizenship question being reinstated on the 2020 Census form; they don’t want the citizen population available for apportionment or redistricting. 

We have had an unprecedented, intentionally engineered influx of illegal aliens in the four years of the Biden-Harris administration—at least 10 million. But even before this latest population explosion of illegal aliens that has made the problem even worse, the Congressional Research Service in 2015 issued a report on what would happen if apportionment were based solely on citizen population. According to the CRS, that would have shifted seven congressional seats. 

Gaining one seat each (with the 2024 winner noted): Louisiana (Trump), Missouri (Trump), Montana (Trump), North Carolina (Trump), Ohio (Trump), Oklahoma (Trump), and Virginia (Harris). California (Harris) would lose four congressional seats and thus four Electoral College Votes. 

How does all of this stack up? If you exclude the alien population from apportionment and the Electoral College as they should be, and correct the Census Bureau’s mistakes, then Donald Trump should have been awarded an additional nine Electoral College votes, while Kamala Harris should have had six votes deducted from her total. 

The final result with these corrections? As this article was being written, Trump had 295 Electoral College votes to Harris’s 226, with Arizona and Nevada still outstanding. But adjusting for the errors and inclusion of aliens means that Trump actually should have won 304 votes and Harris should only have 220 (not including Arizona’s 11 votes and Nevada’s 6 votes). In a close election, even those numbers could make a difference. 

This fundamental injustice ought to be fixed. There is no excuse for what happened at the Census Bureau. It needs a major review of its personnel, procedures and policies, to determine the cause of its mistakes. It did not make this large a substantive error in the 2010 Census, in which the Bureau’s post-census survey disclosed a mere 0.01 percent overcount. 

Second, there should be a concerted push to add a citizenship question to the 2030 Census form and to change the apportionment formula used by the Census Bureau through legislation such as the Equal Representation Act to exclude “individuals who are not citizens of the United States.” 

The mandate won by Donald Trump in both the Electoral College and in the popular vote gives the president the authority and the support of the American people to do the right thing when it comes to ensuring their franchise and protecting the voting rights of American citizens free from errors and foreign interference.

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Hans von Spakovsky is Manager, Election Law Reform Initiative and Senior Legal Fellow, Edwin Meese III Center for Legal and Judicial Studies at The Heritage Foundation. He is an authority on a wide range of issues — including civil rights, civil justice, the First Amendment, and immigration.

The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.