CNN’s senior political data reporter Harry Enten slammed President Joe Biden’s assertion that he could have defeated President-elect Donald Trump in the 2024 election if he had stayed in the race, calling the claim “flat-out bonkers.”
In an interview with USA Today this week, Biden claimed he could have won the 2024 election had he not dropped out on July 21, saying, “It’s presumptuous to say that, but I think yes,” and adding that his view was based on polling he had seen, The Hill reported.
Biden ended his reelection campaign following a rough debate performance that raised questions about his age and ability to recapture the White House among fellow Democrats.
Enten countered Biden’s assertion by highlighting polling data showing Trump leading in key battleground states at the time Biden dropped out. “Donald Trump [was] ahead in all three,” he said, referring to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. He noted that throughout the 2024 campaign, Biden “never led” Trump, emphasizing, “Zero! Nada! No days! No days was Biden ahead of Donald Trump,” according to Fox News.
Based on the polling data, I categorize Biden's statement that he could have beaten Trump as "flat out bonkers."
Biden was well behind Trump when he dropped out. Biden never led in all of 2024. And no incumbent president who was anywhere near as unpopular as Biden has ever won. pic.twitter.com/lGk9h8pygU
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) January 8, 2025
Enten also pointed to Biden’s low approval ratings, stating that “no incumbent president who was anywhere near as unpopular as Biden has ever won.” He concluded, “The bottom line is this: Joe Biden was behind, he had always been behind, and he most likely would have stayed behind.”
Biden’s remarks come amid ongoing introspection within the Democratic Party following the recent election defeat. The party has been grappling with concerns over leadership effectiveness and voter appeal, particularly in crucial swing states that shifted decisively toward Trump in 2024.
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Enten expanded on his analysis by highlighting Trump’s significant leads in various regions at the time Biden exited the race. “Just take a look here, the road to 270 electoral votes, Trump versus Biden based upon polling when Biden dropped out of the race,” he said. “Look at those Great Lake battleground states. You know the ones I’m talking about, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump ahead in all three.”
He continued, “How about here in the Southeast? North Carolina, Georgia, again, Trump leads. How about here in the Southwest? Nevada, Arizona, again, Trump leads.”
Enten emphasized that it wasn’t just that Trump was ahead, but that his leads were substantial in key battleground areas. “My goodness gracious,” he remarked, noting the extent of Trump’s advantage.
Regarding Biden’s claim that his view was based on polling he had seen, Enten pointed out that the former president did not provide specifics about the data’s origin.
